CTL 80+ for a win and a CAT 3/4 road event ?

Been thinking about the race performance last year and my training level at the time, which brings me to one of 2 criteria for a win in my target road race event (56 miles 804m climbing over 6 laps). Either you have to have "quality" CTL above 80 and / or get a good set of wheels.

The wheels and tyres would focus around 20-30W back onto road speed rather than blowing in the wind (5-10W for the tyres and 20W for the wheels) and will make a >5% difference. When it comes to the hill the lower weight of myself and the bike (3kg down from a month ago) should make a difference on the one long climb of just over 100m. Providing the bunch does not disintegrate totally within the first lap and at least holds together for 2-3 laps it should provide a good warm up for the 2nd hour.

For the next month, ahread of the race, I have 3 weeks (last week taper) of training to add around 3-4TSS / week to my CTL, which should bring the level up to around 82-85 before dropping back ahead of the event.